Heating oil hit $6 a gallon: what switching to a heat pump would save
US residential heating oil averaged about $6.04/gallon in the week of October 5, 2026 (this week's prices by state), up 75% from $3.44 a year earlier (EIA data via YCharts). Last winter it averaged $4.01. For a typical oil-heated home that burns 500–800 gallons a season, this winter could cost $1,000–2,000 more than last.
What the price jump means
At $6/gallon and 85% furnace efficiency, oil heat costs about $48 per million BTU of heat delivered. A cold-climate heat pump on 18¢/kWh electricity delivers the same heat for about $18–21. Even in New England, with some of the highest electricity rates in the US, a heat pump now costs far less to run than an oil furnace.
Oil vs heat pump: annual cost, 2,000 sq ft home (USD)
| City | Heating oil | Heat pump | Yearly savings | Propane |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchorage, AK | $5,171 | $2,894 | $2,277 | $3,217 |
| Baltimore, MD | $2,420 | $811 | $1,608 | $2,027 |
| Boston, MA | $2,917 | $1,706 | $1,210 | $2,438 |
| Charlotte, NC | $1,541 | $420 | $1,121 | $1,329 |
| Chicago, IL | $2,967 | $965 | $2,003 | $1,297 |
| Columbus, OH | $2,844 | $875 | $1,969 | $1,684 |
| Detroit, MI | $3,193 | $1,265 | $1,928 | $1,764 |
| Milwaukee, WI | $3,468 | $1,287 | $2,182 | $1,684 |
| Minneapolis, MN | $3,749 | $1,381 | $2,368 | $1,910 |
| New York City, NY | $2,508 | $1,164 | $1,344 | $2,061 |
| Philadelphia, PA | $2,331 | $842 | $1,489 | $1,763 |
| Pittsburgh, PA | $2,863 | $1,067 | $1,795 | $2,165 |
| Virginia Beach, VA | $1,704 | $464 | $1,239 | $1,475 |
| Washington, DC | $2,118 | $712 | $1,406 | $1,714 |
Canada: oil vs heat pump (CAD)
Canadian heating oil has climbed just as sharply: Toronto averaged $2.59/L in September 2026, up from $1.51/L a year earlier (Statistics Canada). The table uses each city's latest official price. See heating oil prices by Canadian city.
| City | Heating oil | Heat pump | Yearly savings | Propane |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calgary, AB | $5,728 | $2,408 | $3,320 | $3,792 |
| Edmonton, AB | $5,906 | $2,500 | $3,406 | $3,910 |
| Halifax, NS | $5,718 | $1,763 | $3,955 | $3,220 |
| Moncton, NB | $7,071 | $1,638 | $5,433 | $3,535 |
| Montreal, QC | $6,390 | $774 | $5,616 | $3,294 |
| Ottawa, ON | $6,421 | $1,363 | $5,058 | $3,338 |
| Saskatoon, SK | $6,815 | $2,526 | $4,289 | $4,415 |
| St. John's, NL | $6,608 | $1,468 | $5,140 | $3,563 |
| Toronto, ON | $5,275 | $1,070 | $4,205 | $2,644 |
| Vancouver, BC | $4,525 | $666 | $3,859 | $2,234 |
| Winnipeg, MB | $6,926 | $1,485 | $5,441 | $4,331 |
What you can do this winter
- Check your actual usage. Your delivery receipts show gallons or litres per season. Enter your price in the calculator.
- Cut the load first. Air sealing and attic insulation reduce what any system has to deliver. They often pay back in one or two seasons at today's oil prices.
- Get heat pump quotes before spring. Installers book up. Ask for a cold-climate model rated for your design temperature.
- Consider a hybrid. Keep the oil furnace as backup and let a heat pump carry most of the season. It still cuts oil use by 70–90% in most climates.
- Look for rebates. Utility and state/provincial programs change often. Check your utility's website and your state or province energy office.
Estimates only. Space heating for a 2,000 sq ft home with average insulation; 85% oil furnace; cold-climate heat pump. Published November 2026.